(This article was carried by First Post on 11
August)
CHINESE CHEQUERS AND SOUTH CHINA SEA
CONSEQUENCES OF CHINA COCKING A SNOOK
AT THE TRIBUNAL'S VERDICT
Attempts to
create order after experiencing extreme disorder has been the story of mankind
since creation. More recently, the creation of the league of nations, the
Geneva convention, the United Nations and many more such measures have been
pursued with the sole intention of creating law and order where little existed.
The situation is equally applicable at sea where the absence of laws could
result in anarchy, collisions and worse, destruction of the entire eco system which has the capacity
to support life on earth.
International
Maritime law covering a wide spectrum of activities at sea have been conceived
and activated to cater to maintaining good order and discipline in oceans which
are international highways, where ships of all nations ply. These laws find
application among heads of state, legislatures, courts, diplomats and indeed
among those who man, commercial as well as war ships.
The two
better known convention/rules/laws that affect all those who are associated
with the sea are the UN/IMO sponsored International Regulations for Prevention
of Collisions at Sea and the United Nations convention of the laws of the sea.(UNCLOS)
Since this
article is confined to the recent judgement of the dispute brought to the
international tribunal by the Philippines, against her powerful neighbour PRC, on
the illegal claims to her maritime territory in the South China Sea (SCS), let
me limit the discussion to consequences to law abiding coastal and island
states and the world at large.
Given that
Philippines or her other neighbours Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan either singularly or
collectively do not have the capacity to stand up to China, the continued
presence of a powerful US Navy carrier task force in the area coupled with a
strongly worded Japanese white paper released just a couple of days ago are
indicators of the immediate reaction to China's bizarre and crude response to
the verdict delivered by the international tribune.
.
Can China be
allowed to get away by not abiding by the convention that she voluntarily
signed and ratified.? What if China is
emboldened by a meek response of the international community, to violate the
clauses of NPT for instance? Is this the beginning of the end of an era of
initiatives taken by the UN and other multi-national bodies to regulate and
maintain a conflict free environment especially at sea? In this context, the
non-military and if necessary military response to contain China's aggressive
thrust in the SCS merit examination and consideration. A brief review of
China's apparent change of strategy after Xi Jinping took over, would clarify the situation.
China Under
XI JINPING
XI has introduced a shift in
Chinese declared policy about her willingness to project and
use power, as is evident in the May 2015 White Paper on Military
Strategy. He has, with great resolve, steered China away from the direction proposed by one of his predecessors Deng Xiaoping. The
silent and subtle methods suggested by the latter have been gradually replaced
with show of power and aggressive intent. Ongoing PLA reforms appear to focus
on power projection outside her own territory and in the immediate periphery.
What then are the options open to law
abiding coastal and island nations who have benefited by the provisions of
UNCLOS?
Non-Military Measures.
These include Diplomatic, Judicial
and Economic. Sensing that sooner than later the international community with
or without the cover of UN would launch a diplomatic offensive, China has
adopted some unprecedented countermeasures. A battery of diplomats and Chinese
Military personnel have descended on the Capitols of Countries that have a say
in the UN. Hurried consultations and meetings with decision makers to justify
their stand of rebutting the verdict of the international tribune is the
agenda. Massive graphics and video clippings of their stand are available on
the official Chinese media. Not even the Time square in New york has been
spared of media onslaught on a giant screen. This is an unprecedented show of diplomatic/media
offensive that has not been attempted by any global power.
It is to be seen if the Americans can
or will mobilise their allies in the Asia Pacific including Australia and Japan
to match this diplomatic offensive.
The Judicial measure initiated by the
Philippines has been justly rewarded. It is to be seen whether UN Security
Council will attempt to rebuke one of its erring permanent members with a veto
power. The very fact that in the past too, the permanent members of the
security council have violated laid down procedures to establish peace in
crisis ridden areas, strengthens India's repeated call for reforms of the UN.
Economic measures against China have
repercussions on almost all powerful nations who trade with China. It would
need consensus of a unique nature.
Military Measures
USA in its attempt to continue to
engage with China is expected to adopt a twin track approach of openly
challenging China's claims in SCS by claiming the right to innocent passage and
freedom of navigation as enumerated in UNCLOS. Japan and Australia may join
this venture. This will be supplemented by inviting China to join powerful
displays of warships drawn from many nations including India, as was the case in
the recently held RIMPAC off Hawaii.
India has the option of participating
in non-military and military measures of her choice. We need to support the
desire of the international community to
contain China before she assumes the role of a permanent bully in the
critical waters of East and South China sea.
Lack of action or sitting on the
fence is not an option we can afford , given that China is expected to flex her
muscle increasingly in the immediate future and in our backyard too!
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