TALIBANOMICS- A
SATIRICAL EXPOSE
The subject
of economics, perse and Economists have captured my imagination for decades. I
am neither familiar with the former nor the latter and hence have been trying
to make sense of Macro/Microeconomics so that I am ready to face the awkward
questions posed by my Grand children. A recent article that Pakistan is
seriously considering lifting the ban on transportation of US and NATO goods to
Afghanistan, after the ban imposed to retaliate for the Drone operations
against “civilian” targets; took me back to my days in Pakistan.
President
Zia was busy with the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and the rather generous
Military and economic aid received from the USA.He had in fact rejected the
first package which he titled as “Peanuts”. That peanut can be converted to
cashew or almond through manipulation of events was the first lesson that I
learnt in economics. It was not written in books but practised by the creators
of Taliban. That Billions of dollars flooded Pakistan during the next decade
was proof enough. Apart from the official aid which is quantifiable, a number
of ancillary industries stood to gain within Pakistan. In the mid and late
80’s,one had to merely visit Peshawar and beyond to buy any weapon of choice in
the “chor Bazaar”. It included the state of art shoulder fired surface to air
missiles. What about stores, communication equipment, clothing, blankets ,small
arms etc, which could be bought at subsidised prices if paid for in Dollars?
Although
American or NATO troops were not present then and were not even welcome in
Pakistan, shipping in Karachi registered
a very healthy growth. Carrying goods to be offloaded at Karachi, thence to the
border areas with Afghanistan was a profitable business, with the veterans of
Pakistan running transportation as a core business. US naval ships began to
visit Karachi for R&R despite liquor not being available in the open
market. Suitable measures were invented to accommodate US naval personnel to
drink to their hearts content in five star hotels of Karachi. Carpets and onyx
sold like hot cakes. Our estimation of dollars earned during such visits to
Karachi ran into millions (A million dollars was a humongous amount in the
80’s). This of course included bunkering, catering, fresh vegetables and fruits
etc. A collapsing economy was rejuvenated. No questions were asked on how the
money was spent and how staggered repayments were to be executed. During many
off --the record discussions with knowledgeable Pakistanis, the same punch line
was heard. “Americans can be conned in many ways. Who is going to repay any
money? Don’t you understand simple economics? You Indians claim to be
banias-but learn from us” This a second lesson in economics which proved to be
right two decades later when the economy was about to collapse and was promptly
rescued.
In the early
80’s Indian roads were filled with Ambassador and Fiat cars. Telephones were
rare, infrastructure was archaic (it still is) and license Raj was at its
pinnacle. In Pakistan however, modern cars were plying, roads were in good
condition at least in the larger cities, piped gas serviced most homes. The
middle class and above were enjoying the privileges of a dollar funded economy.
President Zia was accessible to many who wished to meet him, especially Indian
luminaries who were received at the door of the Presidents house and seen off
too. They would cackle away for the rest of their lives on how humane a man he
was. But then few knew about his plans to “Bleed India through a thousand cuts”
That is another story. Lesson 3, "Investments must be made in visible sectors
which in turn invite not only more investments but good will too. Suitable
gifts to visitors presented in a discrete and humble manner pay rich dividends." Ask the many
US congressmen and high-profile visitors from round the world when Zia ruled Pakistan
And now let
us fast forward to Zardari and his Pakistan. Operation Enduring Freedom in
Afghanistan is a better business deal. The beneficiaries of this business are many
organizations, no matter how disparate they may be. This segment extends from
Veterans of Pak Army who control 30% of the tanker business to many who run the
8000 to 10000 truck consignments. The withdrawal of US troops would increase
heavy lift loads. The next lesson in economics kicks in now. “Do not let a
productive business wither away”. In other words how to keep the Americans and
NATO engaged in the general area? The stakes are too high. The entire tribal
belt lives on protection money paid to them for the safe passage of the convoy.
What is more they are kept busy and quiet.
The
immediate worry for Zardari is the 1.3 Billion$ with held from the Coalition
support fund. The route has to be opened forth with. So what if the Americans
do not apologise? The parliament merely expressed their sentiments. Here is the
next lesson in Talibanomics ,-“do not let sentiments and emotions come in the
way of funding support of reasonable proportion. Delays in decision making and noise levels in public
should be directly proportional to the size of foreign aid”
A lesson or
two to our mandarins in the finance ministry. Why disturb the status quo in the
telecom sector with such high stakes? Ask the Pakis for some advice on killing
a goose that lays golden eggs- before confabulating with the Norwegians and the
Russians.
We could add
TALIBANOMICS to SWAMINOMICS-perhaps?
