Leaked Documents of Scorpene Submarine (Published by First Post on 24 August 2016)

IMPLICATIONS OF LEAKED DOCUMENTS OF SCORPENE

On 06 Apr 2015, Parrikar undocked the fully fitted- out, but yet to be commissioned   first of class Project 75 submarine. It is scheduled  to be commissioned in September 2016 after mandatory sea trials. The project as contracted with the French builders DCNS had already suffered many slippages in delivery schedules and in naval parlance is well astern of the original intent of expeditious delivery to address the force level shortages of diesel electric submarines of the navy.

The earlier experience at Mazagaon Docks to build the German origin state of art submarine designed by HDW had to be terminated in late 1980's owing to allegation of corruption in the deal. The Indian navy was deprived of a well established production line when the Political decision to terminate it was taken ; more as a knee jerk reaction. The costly investment in infrastructure and technical manpower was thus wasted away. The opportunity cost of terminating this prestigious project can be  best summed up by the idiom, "cut your nose to spite your face". The cost was exorbitant to put it mildly.

Even though, the Soviets stepped in to supply   the EKM submarines to bolster the depleting force levels, a 30 year build programme which was approved at the end of 1990s, was to ensure that our build capacity was augmented by creating the necessary infrastructure and technical manpower in two indigenous yards. Inordinate delays in executing the plan has resulted in Mazagaon docks progressing the construction of the much delayed Scorpene. The other is yet to take off.

This is the backdrop against which the leaked documents of today need to be viewed.

The Australian newspaper which broke the story of the leak, has reportedly carefully redacted sensitive data contained in the leaked document, under the advice of Military and legal experts. A few pages exclusively sourced by First Post confirm that the redaction has been professionally             carried out. Whether it covers the whole document running into over 20000 pages is yet to be ascertained. Responsible and ethical reportage makes it incumbent on news paper to blank out what may have undesirable geo political implications. Australia too is on the threshold of building submarines with similar assistance. They ought to know the implications of this action.

As regards the sensitive data, acoustic signatures and 'cavitation appearance' are indeed closely guarded secrets and the sole custodian of such data is the builder. The builder creates a data bank based on simulated and empirical studies carried out over a long duration . The customer in turn would hold him to such data which needs to be proved during sea trials. Hence the actual recorded and analysed data during sea trials would be more valuable than what is stated in documents. Tactically the submarine has many options to deceive sonars by masking its radiated noise. Hence  the impact of such a disclosure ( authentic or not) depends on the quality of submarining-the Indian submariners have decades of experience on both Western and Eastern origin submarines.

Apropos the need to leak  this document and the timing of it, some deductions are possible..Competitors for the second line of building are most likely to gain from this leak . It means Billions of Dollars worth of business at a crucial time when both economy and employment are critical to their survival. It is not that MOD would terminate orders on DCNS- which would be another folly of even greater proportions-but the second line of production is round the corner. Builders from East and West are possibly salivating on the quantum of order.

The very nature of this leak of over 22000 pages makes it amenable to hacking. Considering that we are not a fully wired society, it is unlikely that any single in house source would have all such data on a single but networked computer. This could have  also been hacked from those OEMs in Europe who were associated with this project. We can at best speculate at this stage.

Is it critical for operations? Most of the pages, as would be the case in any documentation, would consist of data which is common to all builders. The operational profile being common to all submarines,  it is likely that factors related to detection of the submarine from ship, airborne  or a hunter killer submarine are critical to operations. But this is the raison d'être  of the submarine arm. Experienced submariners know how to avoid detection.

As regards data on  weapons, whether torpedoes or missiles, these are well known to all submariners. The greatest advantage that we have is that our submariners have for decades operated both Western and Eastern origin submarines and have learnt to innovate when required.

Recent reports suggest that the choice of Torpedoes which is the primary weapon, has not been finalised. In the extant case that has turned out to be an advantage as the torpedoes are the main weapon of submarines and this leaked document pertains to discussions held in 2011.

The navy needs more submarines to address the depletion of conventional units. Delays caused by events like these ought not to result in further reduction in force levels.

Parikkar's statement this morning is noteworthy for its sobriety

CHINA PLAYS CHINESE CHEQUERS IN SOUTH CHINA SEA-WHAT NEXT?

 (This article was carried by First Post on 11 August)

CHINESE CHEQUERS AND SOUTH CHINA SEA

CONSEQUENCES OF CHINA COCKING A SNOOK

AT THE TRIBUNAL'S VERDICT

Attempts to create order after experiencing extreme disorder has been the story of mankind since creation. More recently, the creation of the league of nations, the Geneva convention, the United Nations and many more such measures have been pursued with the sole intention of creating law and order where little existed. The situation is equally applicable at sea where the absence of laws could result in anarchy, collisions and worse, destruction of  the entire eco system which has the capacity to support life on earth.

International Maritime law covering a wide spectrum of activities at sea have been conceived and activated to cater to maintaining good order and discipline in oceans which are international highways, where ships of all nations ply. These laws find application among heads of state, legislatures, courts, diplomats and indeed among those who man, commercial as well as war ships.

The two better known convention/rules/laws that affect all those who are associated with the sea are the UN/IMO sponsored International Regulations for Prevention of Collisions at Sea and the United Nations convention of the laws of the sea.(UNCLOS)

Since this article is confined to the recent judgement of the dispute brought to the international tribunal by the Philippines, against her powerful neighbour PRC, on the illegal claims to her maritime territory in the South China Sea (SCS), let me limit the discussion to consequences to law abiding coastal and island states and the world at large.

Given that Philippines or her other neighbours Vietnam, Brunei,  Malaysia and Taiwan either singularly or collectively do not have the capacity to stand up to China, the continued presence of a powerful US Navy carrier task force in the area coupled with a strongly worded Japanese white paper released just a couple of days ago are indicators of the immediate reaction to China's bizarre and crude response to the verdict delivered by the international tribune.

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Can China be allowed to get away by not abiding by the convention that she voluntarily signed and ratified.? What if China  is emboldened by a meek response of the international community, to violate the clauses of NPT for instance? Is this the beginning of the end of an era of initiatives taken by the UN and other multi-national bodies to regulate and maintain a conflict free environment especially at sea? In this context, the non-military and if necessary military response to contain China's aggressive thrust in the SCS merit examination and consideration. A brief review of China's apparent change of strategy after Xi Jinping  took over, would clarify the situation.

China Under XI JINPING

XI has introduced a shift in Chinese declared policy about her willingness to project and use power, as is evident in the    May 2015 White Paper on Military Strategy. He has, with great resolve, steered China away from  the direction proposed by  one of his predecessors Deng Xiaoping. The silent and subtle methods suggested by the latter have been gradually replaced with show of power and aggressive intent. Ongoing PLA reforms appear to focus on power projection outside her own territory and in the  immediate periphery.

What then are the options open to law abiding coastal and island nations who have benefited by the provisions of UNCLOS?

Non-Military Measures.

These include Diplomatic, Judicial and Economic. Sensing that sooner than later the international community with or without the cover of UN would launch a diplomatic offensive, China has adopted some unprecedented countermeasures. A battery of diplomats and Chinese Military personnel have descended on the Capitols of Countries that have a say in the UN. Hurried consultations and meetings with decision makers to justify their stand of rebutting the verdict of the international tribune is the agenda. Massive graphics and video clippings of their stand are available on the official Chinese media. Not even the Time square in New york has been spared of media onslaught on a giant screen. This is an unprecedented show of diplomatic/media offensive that has not been attempted by any global power.

It is to be seen if the Americans can or will mobilise their allies in the Asia Pacific including Australia and Japan to match this diplomatic offensive.

The Judicial measure initiated by the Philippines has been justly rewarded. It is to be seen whether UN Security Council will attempt to rebuke one of its erring permanent members with a veto power. The very fact that in the past too, the permanent members of the security council have violated laid down procedures to establish peace in crisis ridden areas, strengthens India's repeated call for reforms of the UN.

Economic measures against China have repercussions on almost all powerful nations who trade with China. It would need consensus of a unique nature.

Military Measures

USA in its attempt to continue to engage with China is expected to adopt a twin track approach of openly challenging China's claims in SCS by claiming the right to innocent passage and freedom of navigation as enumerated in UNCLOS. Japan and Australia may join this venture. This will be supplemented by inviting China to join powerful displays of warships drawn from  many  nations including India, as was the case in the recently held RIMPAC off Hawaii.

India has the option of participating in non-military and military measures of her choice. We need to support the desire of the international community to  contain China before she assumes the role of a permanent bully in the critical waters of East and South China sea.

Lack of action or sitting on the fence is not an option we can afford , given that China is expected to flex her muscle increasingly in the immediate future and in our backyard too!