MARITIME SECURITY CHALLENGES
Security analysts and international strategists, including our own eminent ones, have, for many years, out lined the paradigm shift in the security environment in the Indian Ocean region (IOR). It would be futile on my part to repeat the clichéd versions of the post-cold war and post-9/11 developments. As scholars and academics you would perhaps prefer if I were to superimpose a worm’s eye view to the plethora of written material on this subject. I use the term worm’s eye view for two reasons. Firstly, I was at the receiving end albeit as a practitioner of all the strategic thoughts for very nearly four decades and secondly I retired four years ago and have been associated with the bird’s eye view comments which very often do not reflect the ground realities. What I am about to offer is what I believe in and is based on what I saw whilst in white uniform. I am aware that this audience consists of a wide variety of scholars, pedagogues and academics and perhaps some of you have also spent time at the delivery end of the spectrum. The challenge for me, therefore, is to bridge the gap and lead you to a free flowing interaction.
You would all agree that in the recent past the focus of maritime interests has shifted to the Indian Ocean region and the Asia Pacific zone. Indian Ocean is India’s back yard and we do not have to be apologetic to call it India’s ocean, especially to the Chinese who appear to resent this term. There was indeed a very good reason for ancient Mariners to call it ‘The Indian Ocean’. And let it be so-indeed it is our responsibility to ensure it remains so. I am sure the Chinese would not want a change of name of “South China Sea”. So you should not be surprised if Indian Maritime Strategy underlines our area of interest to be a vast area which includes the Indian Ocean. Anything short of it would diminish India’s long term goals and what is more diminish us in our own eyes. I am reminded of the famous quote, “A thousand years scarce serve to form a state. An hour may lay it in the dust. And when can man its shattered splendour renovate and recall its virtues back and vanquish time and fate?”
So what are the implications of this shift of maritime centre of gravity? Well, radical terrorism, energy security, sea borne trade and its protection, narco-terrorism, piracy and problems caused by demographic pressures- in short the health of any economy now seems to depend on the stability of this region. How we shape our destiny-depends on the actions we initiate today, if not yesterday. A word of[i] caution. Having recognised the need to liberalise and globalise we are now trying to consolidate our efforts in this direction. In the process we seem to have got ourselves inextricably inter twined in the geo-politics and geo-economics of the ‘haves’. All developing economies both in the Eastern and western hemisphere have followed the western model as their road map. We however, need to adopt the route of inclusive growth which may not have role models at this point in time. Balancing growth with alleviation of poverty, modernity with our cultural ethos even as we bridge the gap in technology and science will pose a tremendous challenge. The guns versus butter debate will rage and we may not have adequate resources to put all our well intended plans into motion. Do we slow down on catering to our security imperatives or find a way to ensure that we have guns and butter?
Coming to the heart of my theme, let me very briefly out line some basic assumptions that I have made. The most powerful country despite all that has happened in the recent economic down turn; will continue to dominate global politics. While economic power could be multi-polar in definition, military power remains unipolar as there is no other country remotely comparable with USA. In terms of trans-national relations, as aptly stated by Robert Nye[ii], power is widely dispersed. Even so there is no country which can challenge the supremacy of USA. So what? We need to factor that whatever actions USA would take would solely be in her National Interest, whether they are right or not in our perspective. We should learn to act on our own to establish our national interest. I believe it will happen. Why do I believe that we are getting there? Let me give you an example of a benign operation. The Tsunami of Dec 2004 saw India providing expeditious relief assistance to almost all countries affected by the Tsunami. Faster than the most powerful and widely deployed navy in the region. Grief stricken people of Galle harbour of Sri lanka saw an Indian Naval ship at first light, not only clearing the harbour and operationalising it but also setting up mobile hospitals and distributing food and water. As reported by Chidanand Rajghatta in an article titled “India Rides Tsunami, Shows Its Sphere Of Influence”(TOI, Mumbai, 06 January 2005) Mr Ronen Sen, our Ambassador was asked to brief three US Presidents i.e. George Bush, Bush Senior and Clinton on India’s swift response. They raised their eye brows when told that the Southern tip of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands was only 90 nm away from Indonesia. Even as countries with more global reach were contemplating the nature of assistance, India had responded with alacrity. When we want to move we are there in a flash. Another recent example was the evacuation of people not only of Indian origin, from the war zone of Beirut in July 2006. Four Indian warships entered Beirut and shifted the effected people to Cyprus, while a number of other warships merely anchored off Beirut, preferring not to enter. Another example of reach being put to use along with rapidity of action.
Role of the Indian Navy
Professor Geoffrey Till, a renowned strategist, once commented, “Sea power is essentially a relative and not an absolute concept. It is about how one country can, by its maritime policy, influence the behaviour of others more than others can influence it”[iii]. As you would be aware, the IOR has always been a vortex of global activity. The most important trade routes and outlets for oil to various destinations across the world pass through this region. The IOR, therefore, provides interested parties the potential to influence the movement of strategic cargo to and from various parts of the globe. Understandably, major extra-regional powers have maintained presence in the region in some form or the other, to safe guard their own interests.
A question that is logical is “Would such political and economic contests result in clashes of interest among regional and extra regional players?” What then are the significant changes that define the strategic context of the IOR today?
First, the significance of the region has increased after the end of the cold war. Trade and energy security continue to dominate the scene.
Second, the security environment has changed post 9/11. The nature and source of threats faced by leading democracies are different. Most of them emanate from and reside in the IOR.
Third, the role and relevance of military forces have changed the world over. Leading Maritime powers maintain a constant and credible presence in the IOR. This changes the operational dynamics for the Indian Navy.
Fourth, the role and relevance of the Indian navy also needs to underscore maintaining regional stability and an increased emphasis on Maritime diplomacy.
I shall endeavour to discuss these very changes and the often felt need to highlight the increasing relevance of Maritime powers to the security of a country. In our context, the expanding role of our navy as an instrument of state policy and the increasing relevance of Maritime diplomacy needs special mention.
In passing, please also note two maritime maxims which would enable us to better appreciate our role as a viable maritime entity. Firstly, technologies that produce the challenge, in due course produce the solution. Secondly precise and decisive weapons do not necessarily produce precise and decisive results.
WHAT CONSTITUTES MARITIME SECURITY?
Quite simply as a rapidly developing economy, India must surely use economic security as its corner stone with defence against physical threat to the country as the sine qua non of our policy formulation.
Energy Security
Our dependence on the Gulf for our energy needs is likely to be 80% in the coming decades. Our linkages with the Middle East and in particular Saudi Arabia will be critical to our survival.
Trade Security
15 years ago, India’s overseas trade was only 5% of the economy. It has increased since and is expected to touch a Trillion dollars in a couple of decades. Some even estimate the overseas trade to cross 40% of our economy. Most of this will have to move across the seas.
EEZ/Continental Shelf
India has an EEZ of over 2.02 million sq kms. This figure is set to increase shortly due to our revised claims. This means we have enormous potential for economic, oceanographic and scientific activities. The Coast guard in particular will be required to grow to meet challenges as never before.
How can the Indian Navy meet these challenges? Most of you may not know that as a routine measure, right through peace time, surveillance is maintained on our trade routes and ships are tasked to carry out SLOC monitoring. Economic interests of the country are accorded highest priority in our peace and war time activities.
Asymmetric Threats
The predominant threat these days is very much non-traditional in nature. Terrorism, religious extremism, piracy, narcotic and contraband trade, gun running and landing explosives-all of these threaten our security. Many of such activities are enabled by the freedom of navigation assured by the laws of the seas or supported by sympathisers from across the seas. Do not forget that globalisation has also resulted in globalisation of criminal activities. Again the surveillance and reach of the Indian Navy acts as a deterrence which is crucial to our security.
I would like to remind all of you that the only Pirated ship to be apprehended at sea by any navy of the world was the Alandro Rainbow, a Japanese ship hi jacked off Indonesia but captured by our maritime forces off our west coast of India. For those who want action this was a very loud statement that was made by India.
Instrument of State Policy
Stability in the IOR is of great consequence to our economic growth and prosperity. Our bi-lateral trade in the whole region including most parts of west Asia is set to explode. Trade agreements with countries of South East Asia and our Look –East policy are contributing factors. India has a direct interest in the stability of the whole region and of course the stability of our immediate neighbourhood of South Asia.
What can the Navy do to contribute towards regional stability? Operations carried out in support of Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius and benign operations as stated earlier signal intent to maintain stability. Military assistance can also be provided as and when directed by the Govt. We have also gifted Patrol vessels to Seychelles, Maldives and Mauritius. We have even provided short range surveillance air craft to Myanmar
Potential For Instability
Western analysts view the IOR as a potential hub of instability and a source of terrorism and religious fundamentalism. Illegal immigration and ethno-religious clashes have been a consequence of unequal development pattern and demographic inconsistencies.
The Navy caters for presence in such areas and is ready for quick response. In a way this capability acts as an insurance against forces that promote instability.
Presence of extra-regional forces at our door step does impinge on our freedom of operations. They also have ramification for regional politics in the future. What happened in post-Saddam Iraq and what is likely to happen in Afghanistan and Iran are cases in point.
We need therefore to build capabilities to deter multi-national forces from interfering in our national domestic activities. Constant engagement and regular interaction by our presence in such areas would assist us to assess the situation. Our deployment by not being a part of a multinational force gives us the choice of evolving a foreign policy free from pressures. This by itself fulfils a very important military and diplomatic role. Notice our resolve to carry out stand alone operations against Pirates in Somalia when a substantial multi-national force has been deployed by leading navies of the world. Reflect on our insistence of operating independently in the Malacca straits during the Gulf war to assist safe passage of multi- national forces, that too after we obtained the concurrence of all the littoral countries bordering the Malacca straits. The unilateralism practised by the US forces until recently perhaps has been reshaped by the Obama administration in May this year after the experience gained with countries like India.
The Changing Nature Of Maritime Diplomacy
Traditional means of practising Maritime diplomacy which includes Gun Boat diplomacy at one end of the spectrum, have been used to send calibrated messages to a Government, particularly in the early stages of a crisis. Some changes in form are now visible and encompass activities which were not so prevalent in the cold war period. Some of these have found mention in our own Maritime doctrine published from time to time. Pro active engagement of extra-regional maritime forces is a welcome addition. Gone are the days when we shunned interaction with other navies. I dare say the experience gained by the navy has emboldened the administration to approve such interactions for the Indian Air force and the Indian Army. Our combined experience of constant and calibrated exercises with muti-national forces will in my view result in a versatile Joint Doctrine for the Indian Armed Forces. Furthermore as and when the CDS or an equivalent structure is created (please note I am saying as and when and NOT if and when) our efforts to further hone our skills in this respect will get a boost.
Interoperability with other forces is a necessary precondition should we decide to partake in UN led operations. MOU’s signed with friendly countries in regard to defence cooperation and joint patrols of Malacca straits, as well as Fleet Reviews and Milans of regional navies at Port Blair are all examples of our intent. Building confidence, dispelling fear and joint efforts to tackle low intensity threats need to be an integral and routine function of the Indian Navy in the coming decades.
TRAINING
One of the least discussed activities, is the training we provide to friendly countries in the region. At any given time we have over 200 trainees in our establishments which are gaining international reputation. About 20 different countries have availed training facilities that we have nurtured over the years. This not only helps to create good will but more importantly it projects our competence. Before the Indian economy gathered momentum, we were extremely limited by budgetary constraints and in relative terms our living conditions failed to meet the high demands of quality of life that we could offer to prospective trainees. Many countries which had achieved economic booms began to bypass India and seek greener pastures in the West. That has begun to change with increased budgetary allocations and active support of the MEA which offers financial packages for foreign trainees. We need to expand our horizons and aggressively market our spare capacities readily available with us. The dividends should we succeed, are enormous.
What Needs To Be Done?
To achieve our objectives we need to base our strategy on twin characteristics of Credibility and Capability. The former needs clarity of purpose that reflects Political Will and Intent to deploy forces to protect our National Interests. Deploying a warship 24/7 to thwart the designs of the Pirates off Somalia is an example.
The latter, is all about pursuing deterrence and providing reassurance when the need arises. The ability to sustain operations for prolonged durations in our area of interest and the ability to project power when necessary are vital components of capability. This needs C4I2, fire power, logistics and integral Air Power. As our nation grows politically and economically, our navy will have to grow in strength. In fact the converse is equally true. As our navy grows stronger, so will our country gain, both economically and politically?
Concluding Comments
As you know, the last decade has seen some interesting developments. With our economy showing signs of resilience, we have started to assert ourselves. Today we engage major players on an equal footing.
Our growing economy needs assurance of uninterrupted trade and energy from across the seas. Policy without capability makes bad diplomacy. An assertive foreign policy needs a strong navy. I was indeed surprised to see an entry in the visitors book of one of our ships which took part in the Tsunami operations in Srilanka.Mr Lakshman Kadirgamar the then minister of foreign affairs who was later assassinated by LTTE, had this to say, “The mapping of the bed of the Colombo harbour, completed so swiftly and efficiently by the Indian Navy, is yet another manifestation of the enormous good will that the Government of India bears towards the Govt and the people of Sri Lanka.This exercise shows that the modern Indian Navy has the reach and the capability to be ranked among the foremost navies of the world” This is an onerous responsibility that rests on us. The world expects us to assume greater responsibility in our area of influence. It is up to us to rise to the occasion.
I am honoured to be in your presence on this momentous occasion. May the University of Goa continue to be a shining beacon of knowledge and may you grow from strength to strength.
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